Computational Modelling of the Boko Haram War in Borno State Using ABM Linked GIS

The Boko Haram insurgency in Borno State, Nigeria, represents a complex asymmetric conflict shaped by dynamic interactions among insurgents, government forces, civilians, and spatial-environmental conditions. This study develops a spatially explicit Agent-Based Model (ABM) integrated with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to simulate and forecast conflict dynamics in the region. The model incorporates geospatial layers including terrain, road networks, settlements, and infrastructure, while representing adaptive behaviours governing movement, engagement, displacement, and resource access. Findings indicate that spatial context significantly influences conflict trajectories: insurgents exploit low-accessibility terrain to sustain operational resilience, whereas government forces are more effective in infrastructure-rich environments. Scenario-based simulations reveal that military-only interventions produce short-term reductions in violence but risk dispersing insurgent activity, while integrated security-humanitarian strategies yield more stable long-term outcomes. This research demonstrates the value of computational simulation as a decision-support tool for conflict forecasting and policy evaluation in fragile settings

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Not applicable

The datasets used in this study are openly available at [repository link] and the source code is available on GitHub at [GitHub link].

This work did not receive any external funding.