The Global Economic Implications, Risks, and Opportunities Associated with China’s 14 th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025)


China’s 14 th Five Year Plan (2021-2025) will achieve growth in two areas. First, there will be growth by means of domestic consumption and a resilient supply chain that will attempt to eliminate risk of disruption by relying primarily on domestic inputs. Second, China intends to expand exports of manufactured and high-tech goods and services in order to be a permanent element of global supply chains. Areas of investment focus will be in innovation, high technology, green energy and technology, and progress to zero emissions by 2060. They will build on the innovation and environmental conservation (green goals) that were set and achieved in the 13 th Five-Year Plan (CPC, 2015). New concepts that are central to the plan include the concept of ‘dual circulation’ (internal and external economic activity), focused areas of innovation (energy, agriculture, food production, high technology). The social aspect of the 14 th Five-Year Plan emphasizes civility, renewed emphasis on core values and mental health that involve sports and healthy activities. There are many global implications of the 14 th Five-Year Plan, which include the possibility of short-term growth through strictly domestic production, but long-term challenges resulting from a de facto import substitution strategy that precipitates a global economic activity contraction as the important China market for globally-produced goods and services shrinks. Many of the objectives identified in the plan represent opportunities for international cooperation and joint ventures, although the plan does not specify the incentives, or the scope or size of ideal projects.


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