Reaching Pandemic Milestones with Country Primary and Secondary Vaccination Inflection Points: An Assessment of Foundational and Hybrid Forecasting Methodologies”

The devastating worldwide impact of the COVID-19 pandemic created a need to better understand the effects of vaccination on case fatality rates (CFR) in a pandemic setting. Foundational time series forecasting models (ARIMA, Prophet, LSTM) and novel hybrid models (SARIMA-Bidirectional LSTM andSARIMA-Prophet-Bidirectional LSTM) were compared for performance and accuracy to forecast vaccination inflection points for 26 countries. Correlation analyses demonstrated that stringency index, age 65 and older, life expectancy, andpositive test rate, are factors correlating the most with the vaccination and case fatality rates. The primary vaccination inflection pointwas reached at 83.27 days (15-367 days), at the vaccination rate of 13.1% (0.1% - 50%), with 42% of countries seeing the initial impact in

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The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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The datasets used in this study are openly available at [repository link] and the source code is available on GitHub at [GitHub link].

This work did not receive any external funding.